McGovern, Chandler, Mahoney win

So say the preliminary results.

What to say about the D3 US House race? Incumbent Democrat Jim McGovern won the district, with Republican challenger “Barf Bag” Marty Lamb winning the towns of Hopkinton, North Attleboro, Plainville, Rehoboth, and Wrentham. There were no public polls of the race beforehand, but I felt confident about this one based on 538’s pre-election prediction prediction, based on “expert forecasts, fundraising data, past election returns and other indicators.” Their final best estimate was that McGovern would get 72% of the vote. At this point, he has roughly 57%. Maybe that 15% is due to flaws in Nate Silver’s “no-poll” statistical model; I’d rather think of it as the gap between what you’d think would happen in a typical year vs an ordinary opponent, and what happened in a Tea Party year against a solid Lamb campaign. Earlier, this week, the T&G’s Shaun Sutner reported that an unnamed McGovern insider had leaked him an internal poll from weeks before saying McGovern was at 48%. Was the poll bad? Had adjustments been made to make it look grim for McGovern? Was it being leaked to freak out the McGovern base? Did the campaign do something in the final weeks to gain 10%? Will we ever learn to ignore internal polls?

In the D13 MA House race, Democrat “Spammin’ John” Mahoney won big with around 58% of the vote, vs. around 33% for Republican Paul Franco. Independent Ron “ACLU” Madnick, who I was rooting for, got around 8%.

The state senate race, won by incumbent Democrat Harriette Chandler, is the third race being followed in this household, but I don’t think there’s much to say there.

Updates


This T&G photo from McGovern’s victory speech is a perfect pic of the Congressman from the commonwealth’s most metal city.

T&G:

Hours after winning re-election to a sixth term in office, state Sen. Harriette L. Chandler filed a defamation lawsuit today against her 78-year-old Republican challenger, William J. Higgins Sr. of Northboro.

Womag:

The lawsuit is in response to the radio ads, robo calls, campaign literature and emails sent out by Higgins in the month leading up to the November election that accused Chandler of accepting bundled money and taking bribes, among other illegal or illicit activities.

Minor note: seems like Worcester Magazine’s online coverage has been running rings around the T&G’s. Nothing like what they have at the Globe, though.

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