So McGovern is going to win, right?

The past few weeks I’ve been swamped with e-mails, Facebook status messages, and general advertising aimed at interesting me in the race between Rep. Jim “He has a picture of Archbishop Romero in his office” McGovern and challenger “Barf Bag” Marty Lamb.

So how close is this race? Should I be paying attention?

I went over to the FiveThirtyEight blog, where Nate Silver (the baseball statistician who took the political world by storm with amazing accuracy predicting the 2008 election results) has had McGovern at a 100% chance of winning for the entire campaign season.


I can see Mr. Lamb’s supporters would want to work hard to build their man’s name for future elections, however low his chances in this one. I can see Mr. McGovern’s supporters would want their man to have a solid mandate in this Tea Party year. But as for me, I’ll be staying focused on other issues.

Note: In the primary, Mr. Lamb made his mark handing out airsickness bags, either

  1. leaving you with the mildly memorable image of people sickened by the current Congress, or
  2. leaving you with the very memorable image of Marty Lamb wandering around with a bag of his own vomit.

Not having heard any better nicknames from his campaign or the press, for the moment “Barf Bag Marty” it is.

2 thoughts on “So McGovern is going to win, right?

  1. T&G: “While there hasn’t been any independent polling of these contests, a Jim McGovern insider said the Worcester Democrat’s internal poll of a couple of weeks ago had McGovern at 48 percent, the lowest of his 14 years in office.”

    Worth noting that Nate Silver’s prediction is based on the makeup of the district, the power of incumbency, money spent, etc. In 48 hours we’ll know how good his “no poll” model is.

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